Expected Value (EV)

EV = (probability of winning x payout) minus (probability of losing x stake). For a 4D payout of 3000x in Indonesia: EV = (1/10,000 x 3000) minus (9,999/10,000 x 1) = 0.3 minus 0.9999, which is about minus 0.7. That means: for every 1 rupiah staked, the long-run expectation is a loss of about 0.70 rupiah.