Lottery Probability Calculator

Compute win probability, expected value (EV), and house edge for every bet type. Based on pure combinatorics, not operator opinion.

PICK A BET TYPE

Match all 4 digits in exact draw order (10,000 combinations).

STAKE PER TICKET (Rp)

PAYOUT (× STAKE)

Default 3000x, actual rate varies by operator.

CALCULATION RESULT

WIN PROBABILITY

0.0100%

= 1 in 10000 tickets

FAIR PAYOUT (NO EDGE)

10000×

vs. actual 3000× = house edge 70.0%

EXPECTED VALUE PER TICKET

Rp -7,000

-70.0% of stake, long-run loss

IF YOU PLAY 100 TICKETS

Rp -700,000

expected after 100 tickets

IMPORTANT

Expected value is a long-run average. Any single ticket can win or lose; what is consistent is that across many tickets, your actual result converges to this EV. For every lottery bet type, a negative EV means the average player loses. Big winners are statistical outliers, not the rule.

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

5 QUESTIONS · CLICK TO OPEN

What is Expected Value (EV) in a lottery?

EV is the average return per ticket over the long run. Formula: (win probability x payout x stake) - (loss probability x stake). For every lottery bet type the EV is negative, so the player loses on average. An individual ticket can win or lose; what is consistent is the aggregate EV.

Why is the lottery house edge so high?

A 4D payout of 3000x against a fair (no-edge) payout of 10,000x gives a house edge of 70%. Compare that with online slots at 5 to 15% and blackjack at 0.5%. The lottery is one of the highest house-edge games out there.

Where does the 34% Colok Bebas probability come from?

P(a digit appears at least once across 4 positions) = 1 - P(the digit never appears) = 1 - (9/10)^4 = 1 - 0.6561 = 0.3439, about 34%.

Is this calculator accurate?

The mathematical probability is exact (combinatorics). Default payouts reflect common market rates for 2024 to 2026. Actual payouts vary by operator, so edit the PAYOUT field to compute a specific operator.

Is there a strategy that raises the probability?

No strategy can raise the probability above the mathematical baseline for an RNG-based game. What you can do: reduce the house edge by playing bets with fairer odds (for example 2D vs 4D), or avoid gambling entirely (a positive-EV activity such as saving or investing).

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